Why no monthly figure holds for everyone
The question “how much does a deals channel earn” has no single answer, and the figures circulating online usually do not say where they came from. Two channels with the same number of subscribers can end up very far apart, because revenue does not come from subscribers: it comes from qualifying purchases attributed to your Associates account.
Between the moment you post a message and the moment a commission appears in the Amazon report there are several steps, and each one can shrink the number. Keep them mixed together and any estimate becomes a figure you made up. Keep them apart and you can measure them one at a time.
This guide does not hand you a figure to copy. It gives you the quantities involved and a method to work out your own, from data you already have.
The five quantities, kept apart
Subscribers are the people who chose to receive your messages. It is the most visible number and the least useful on its own: it does not tell you how many of them still open the channel.
Views are the counter Telegram shows under each message. They indicate how far that single post travelled, not a list of interested people and not a count of buyers. Clicks are the actual openings of your links, and you read them in the tools connected to your Associates account, not inside Telegram.
Qualifying purchases are the orders the Amazon program attributes to your traffic under its conditions. Credited commissions are what survives returns, cancellations and checks, and they are the only quantity that corresponds to revenue. What your audience spent on the products is not your income.
Official source: Telegram: channel FAQ
Consistency and relevance weigh more than subscriber count
A channel that posts whenever it happens to loses the place it held in its followers’ habits. Notifications go unread, the next message starts from a smaller audience, and the share of subscribers who open it falls. Consistency is not an abstract virtue: it is what keeps the reachable share of your audience alive.
Relevance acts on the next step. Someone who subscribed for desk accessories opens a message about a monitor and ignores the one about a kitchen appliance. An off-topic product does not just produce zero clicks: it teaches your followers that your messages can be skipped, and that cost lands on every future post.
This is why subscriber count is the least reliable indicator. It multiplies, but it multiplies a rate that depends on consistency and relevance, and that rate can be a couple of percentage points or a meaningful fraction of the channel. For setting a channel up coherently from the start, see how to make money on Telegram.
A method for estimating it yourself
The calculation goes step by step, and each step uses either something you observed or an assumption you write down as an assumption. The result is not a forecast: it is an order of magnitude that tells you whether this path is worth continuing.
Do it on a month that has already closed, not on one ahead of you, and repeat it a month later to see which steps moved.
- Take a closed month and count how many messages with links you actually published, not how many you had scheduled.
- Work out the average views per message: add up the views of that month’s posts and divide by the number of posts.
- Read the total clicks for the period in your Associates tools and divide them by total views: that is the share of people who open the link.
- In the Amazon reports, separate items ordered from commissions credited in the same period, excluding returns and cancellations already recorded.
- Divide the credited commissions by the clicks for the same period: that is the average value of a click for your channel, which is your number and nobody else’s.
- For a projection, multiply the average value of a click by the clicks you expect from the number of messages you can genuinely publish, and write the assumptions you used next to it.
Eligibility comes before the calculation
An estimate only means something if the distribution method you are using is allowed for your account. On the Associates application page, Telegram does not appear among the social networks Amazon lists as accepted. That does not mean it is forbidden: it means it is not listed, and that you need to ask Amazon support to confirm your setup.
Keep the answer you get. Building a revenue forecast on an unconfirmed method means estimating something that might not be authorised, and the first steps of the affiliate path are covered in how to earn with Amazon Associates.
Official source: Amazon: application review
The costs that have to come off
Gross revenue is not the result of the project. Subtract the subscriptions for the tools you use to find products and publish them, including the plan you pick on the pricing page, plus any domain, design or ancillary costs.
Then subtract what you spent acquiring subscribers, if you spent anything. It is a one-off cost, and it should be compared with what those subscribers actually generated in the following months, not with the number at the top of the channel.
That leaves time. Count the hours spent choosing products, writing messages, fixing expired deals and answering your followers, and divide the credited commissions by those hours. If the result does not convince you, the problem is usually in the product selection or the relevance, not in the number of messages sent.